Linus' Bluffs Analysis pt. 2

Hey!

Getting raised on the river after you bluff bet with 4-high means the pot is over?

Not necessarily. At least not for arguably the best cash game player in the world - LLinusLLove.

A week ago I published a video about LLinusLLove on my YouTube channel. If you haven’t seen it you can watch it here:

What Makes Players FEAR The Poker GOAT

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwpXGwLW1Ds&ab_channel=2CardConfidence

Today, we're looking at the second of two bluffs that Linus made in the video. In this one, he tries to bluff Stefan Burakov with 4-high on the river.

Hand #2

Linus calls Stefan’s button minraise from the BB with 42s and the flop and turn get checked through. On the river, Linus decides to bluff as he has only 4 high.

Following GTO Wizard, a 70% sizing would be an option here for his range, even though not a high frequency one.

The solver would rather go for a mix of a small bet (33% or 50%) and a 150% overbet. The former allowing him to get thin value with a pair of 8s and Ts, as well as cheap bluffs with 9-, J- and Q-high.

And the overbet leveraging the 6x advantage that Linus has, but also being able to value bet any Kx.

Now what I already mentioned in the video is that the ranges - especially Stefan's - arriving at this river when it got checked back twice, will likely look quite different than what the solver says.

The flop would usually be a range bet and also the turn would be a bet for Stefan’s hand K3cc. That’s why in this case, I think it’s not useful to look at the solver’s exact outputs, but rather think about what Linus might have been trying to accomplish with his play.

If we just look at the solver, we see that a) 42cc would never bet the river and b) the bet size of the suits that do bet would be 150% pot.

Also, when checking the 3betting range against Stefan’s raise, we see that Linus’ raise size of about 50% could be used, but it includes verrryy little bluffs – and basically all of them being Tx, blocking some rare full houses.

So it’s not hard to see that this hand has gone way off course from GTO – from both players’ sides.

So rather than search the solver for answers we likely won’t find, simply because there is no street-poker-solver out yet, I’ll give you my personal take:

As discussed in the video, on the river Linus finds himself in a spot where he has pretty much an uncapped range: He can have any 79, T6s, 86s and a lot of other 6x. Stefan realistically can only really have a few 6x at best, as it is extremely unlikely he would check back a set/full house or a straight(draw) twice.

Also, he simply has less 6x in his range that gets to the flop when he raises the BTN compared to Linus who completes a minraise from the BB.

So Linus is in a spot where he could easily make use of Stefan’s capped range and raise a lot bigger. But he chooses not to and do the exact opposite. Why?

Why not raise to $5k or even jam to get max fold equity with an uncapped range?

In my opinion, the most likely reason is that he is not trying to get Stefan off a hand like the one he has, which is top pair. Instead I think he is targeting Stefan’s bluffs. Stefan would definitely be able to bluff raise this river, because he also knows Linus’ betting range can be wide, since the range he gets to the river with still includes a huge amount of air hands.

The problem for Linus is that he can not just bluff catch against Stefan’s bluffs, because… he has 4 high. Being literally the 2nd nut low hand possible on this board. So how does he still win against Stefan’s bluffs? By getting them to fold. And in contrast to being up against a made hand, trying to get a bluff to fold doesn’t require a huge raise. A small raise is perfectly fine to get Stefan to fold his Q-/J-/9-high bluffs.

So by raising small, Linus does get the benefit of folding out bluffs – bluffs that would even beat his hand – and to do that for a small risk. It likely also helps a bit to have clubs in order to block 64cc that Stefan could have.

And even though it didn’t work this time, because Stefan did have a hand (imo one Linus didn’t target to fold out), there’s still a good lesson to learn here which is:

Think about which type of hand you’re targeting for which action. Whether you’re bluffing or value betting, having a clear idea what you’re trying to accomplish against which part of your opponent’s range will help you find the best sizing to achieve that goal. If like in this case your only goal is to fold out other bluffs / air hands, a small bet or raise will likely accomplish just that.

That’s it for this time, looking forward to seeing you in the next one!

Victor

2 Card Confidence

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