Hey!

Today we'll look at a concept that you can apply TODAY without studying for ages or running countless sims, but can save you loads of money.

You thought preflop was solved and can't be exploited in today's day and age?

Well, even though preflop solutions have been out there for years and tell you exactly what to do to play GTO poker preflop (for example by checking out our RangeViewer), the reality is most people simply still don't play GTO preflop ranges.

Especially 3betting from the blinds is a spot where people have been way too passive for ages.

Today, we'll see what that means for you.

This is a GTO opening range for the button, in this example it's a NL100 rake structure on GGPoker.

Most people will get that right.

BTN opening range

And this would be the BB's response:

BB range vs BTN open

As we can see, the BB would 3bet 99+ and AQ+ for value, also adding AJs sometimes. But a lot of 3betting hands would be low Ax, K-, Q-, J and even T-high suited bluffs.

Suited broadways are mostly just called. Which makes this 3betting range a very polar one. The overall 3betting frequency would be 13.53%.

Against the 3bet, this would be our continuing range on the BTN:

BTN range vs BB's 3bet

Pretty much what we're used to. Calling a lot of suited hands, low pockets pairs and broadways.

4betting JJ+ and AK and mixing in some low suited Ax and Kx and offsuited broadways as bluffs.

BUT....

...in most cases, this does not come close to reality.

Most people will simply not 3bet that many bluffs from the BB. (Of course this depends on the stakes you're playing. If you're playing 5k regs on a daily basis, your opponents will be way more likely to get preflop ranges right. But for most games that are at midstakes or lower, you'll find a lot of players that don't play a GTO 3betting strategy like the one you see above).

Even at NL500, I rarely see people 3bet J7s, T6s or K3s with a high frequency. And the same goes for A4o, A5o or A7o.

Also, people are much more inclined to use KJs or ATs as 3bets than KJo or KTo.

So, how would our approach have to look like against such a tighter 3betting range?

To get an answer to that question, I ran some preflop sims in Simple Preflop and played around with some assumptions.

If we assume the BB to 3bet a lot less of the suited bluffs and reduce a lot of those hands to only 25% frequency, and also make them 3bet more suited broadways instead of offsuited ones, what would that mean for us on the BTN when we face a 3bet?

Well, the results might be shocking.

Adjusted BB range vs BTN's open

This adjusted 3betting range still includes quite some bluffs. But the overall 3betting frequency drops from 13.53% (GTO) to 9.34%.

And this would be the range we could continue against that 3bet:

BTN range vs tighter BB 3bet

A DRASTIC decrease of hands we can continue!

Against the adjusted 3betting approach, we have to play insanely tight. We cannot even call QJs, AJo or KQo. Even 99 and lower fold half the time. Crazy!

The overall amount of hands we can call dropped from 22.74% (GTO) to only 8.07%, so just a bit more than one third!

And now keep in mind that the 3betting range we gave the BB still includes some suited bluffs. What if we simulated a player in that BB that just doesn't do that?

On paper it's easy to say we need to have bluffs in our BB 3betting range, but we all know players who still just don't do it, because... "well, why not just call the BTN's raise instead? It's safe because you always at least get to see the flop, right?"

We all know those players and I've been one of them for a long time myself.

So what would happen against a complete ABC player? A nit that might play solid, but just doesn't 3bet bluff from the BB?

Let's say this was their range:

Adjusted BB range (nit) vs BTN's open

Mostly strong hands that 3bet, so TT+ and high/suited broadways. A few A5s/A4s are sprinkled in as bluffs. But everything else, they just call.

Let's see what we should do against that.

BTN range vs adjusted BB nit 3bet

Boom. Absolute insanity.

We don't even continue AQo, KQs and most TT. How crazy is that?

But, you'll notice that there are still a lot of bluffs in our range that we should 4bet. Why is that? Does it make sense to 4bet bluff against a nitty 3better?

Well, let's see.

If we take a look at the BB's reaction against a potential 4bet from us on the BTN, we see a strange thing:

BB range vs BTN's 4bet (after BB 3bet a nit range)

According to this sim, the BB would often fold TT, JJ, sometimes even QQ and most suited broadways.

Does that make sense?

Well, it does in solver land. But only there.

We node locked the BB's 3betting range to be extremely nitty. However, this sim then calculated every following node according to the node locked adjustment we gave the BB. And when we as the BTN continue with a super tight range (because the BB 3bet super tight), the BB would then also continue with a super duper tight range as a consequence.

That's because in solver land, every player KNOWS their opponent's ranges.

As you know, that is not the reality.

In reality, the BB would very likely not fold TT and JJ against a 4bet and also continue most suited broadways.

Their continuing range against our 4bet would likely look something like this:

Adjusted BB range facing BTN's 4bet

Given those circumstances, let's see how our approach on the BTN would look like now.

Meaning what would we do when we're on the BTN, facing a 3bet from a very tight player who basically doesn't 3bet bluff, but is also likely to continue most of their hands if we 4bet?

Here's your answer:

BTN range vs BB's nit 3bet (assuming BB calls most hands vs BTN's potential 4bet)

We would fold everything but TT+ and AQs+.

And we would never 4bet bluff. NEVER.

Because why would we? We're facing a super tight range and almost never expect them to fold against a 4bet. So the only reasonable thing to do would be to get it in with our monsters and get the hell out of there with our weak hands.

What does this teach us?

If you've learned "KQ is always a call against a 3bet, JTs is always a great hand to play in position etc. etc.", then today you learned that things are not always universally true.

Instead, you want to think for yourself.

That means to first think about what your opponent is doing in reality, and then adjust based on what you've been able to pick up about their play.

In reality, you will rarely have exact ranges of your opponents or sometimes not even stats. And even if you do, the sample size isn't always enough to know exactly what ranges they are playing.

But, that isn't always necessary. The point of this is not to play the exact ranges shown above. The point is that you should allow yourself to make extreme adjustments when the circumstances are right.

If you never see your opponent show up with a bluffing hand when they 3bet, you know they are playing tighter than GTO. And that means it's time for you to tighten up as well! And as you can see that is 100% solver approved.

Don't take the sims above literally and play these exact ranges. After all, the exact approach a solver gives you depends on the inputs, which are always just estimations.

Also, solver outputs rely on the assumption that players play every street perfectly that isn't node locked. Including postflop. Which is not the case - even less so when your opponent has already proven to play imperfectly preflop.

So even against an opponent who plays too tight, you're likely able to still play a few hands profitably that the solver says would be -EV.

What the experiment above does show us however, is that you absolutely need to pay attention to your opponents' tendencies. If you spot someone who plays too tight from the blinds - and that is most people! - you can, and should...

1. ...fold a lot of those speculative hands that will only get you caught up dominated and end up in a setup.

2. ...not bluff! Against a tight range, you don't need to be balanced, so just throw away your bluffs. It will save you a lot of money.

Hope you enjoyed this and can take it to your games and apply it! It will make you quite a few $s more.

Talk soon,

Victor

2 Card Confidence

If you liked this post, you might be interested in my upcoming course PREFLOP XPLOITS, where we explore how you can exploit the average regular's preflop leaks: